Predictions are the boxing vpn免费 ring where fights over the future take place.
预测是围绕未来进行战斗的拳击场。
As the story goes, King Louis XI kept an astrologer in court.
据故事所述，国王路易十一世在法庭上保留了一位占星家。
One day, the astrologer predicted that a lady of the court would die within a week.
有一天，占星家预言宫廷中的一位女士将在一周内死去。
When she did, vpn免费下载 Louis was shaken.
当她这么做时，路易斯感到震惊。
Either the astrologer had murdered the woman to prove his accuracy, or he was so prescient that he could threaten Louis himself.
要么是占星家谋杀了这个女人来证明他的准确性，要么是他有先见之明，可以威胁路易斯本人。
The astrologer had to be murdered.
占星家必须被谋杀。
The king ordered his servants that upon his signal, they were to throw the astrologer out the window to a certain death.
国王命令他的仆人，根据他的信号，他们就把占星家扔出窗外，直至死亡。
You'd be surprised, by the way, vpn免费下载 by how many seers in history have met this vpn免费下载 fate.
顺便说一句，你会惊讶于历史上有多少先知遭遇过这种命运。
Some advice to astrologers: keep away from kings and heights.
给占星家的一些建议：远离国王和高地。
When the astrologer arrived to meet Louis, the King asked him one last question.
当占星家来见路易斯时，国王问了他最后一个问题。
"Given your 免费vpn prophetic abilities, vpn免费下载 tell me, how long will you live?"
“以你的预言能力，告诉我，你能活多久？"
Not missing a beat, the astrologer replied, "I will die three days before Your Majesty." And Louis never gave the signal.
占星家毫不犹豫地回答道：“我会比陛下早三天死。“路易斯从未发出信号。
Did the astrologer find his answer in the stars?
占星家在星空中找到了答案吗？
I don't think so.
我不这么认为。
I think vpn免费下载 he understood the power of prediction and used it to get himself life insurance.
我认为他了解预测的力量，并利用它为自己购买了人寿保险。
Smart astrologer.
聪明的占星家。
Even though we tend to associate prediction with knowledge, I'd like to invite you to consider the possibility that most of the predictions that you encounter in an everyday setting are closer to the realm of power than that of knowledge.
It might seem that the days in which we sought astrologers and soothsayers to tell us about the future are very distant, but often we use AI as the new Oracle vpn免费下载 of Delphi, and tech executives whisper in the ears of our leaders, much like court astrologers used to.
Granted, the technology is different, but the political role is not.
诚然，技术不同，但政治角色不同。
Predictions are often power plays in disguise.
预测往往是变相的权力游戏。
They justify value-laden decisions under the pretense of facts.
他们以事实为幌子，为充满价值的决定辩护。
Better understanding prediction matters more than ever because we're relying 免费vpn on forecasting more than ever with AI.
更好地理解预测比以往任何时候都更重要，因为我们比以往任何时候都更依赖人工智能的预测。
And based on how we talk about prediction, we're being much too naive about it.
根据我们谈论预测的方式，我们对此太天真了。
But vpn免费 AI is science, you might think.
但AI是科学，你可能会想。
It's vpn免费 cutting-edge technology, right?
这是尖端技术，对吧？
Well, it depends on the kind of AI and how we use it.
嗯，这取决于人工智能的类型以及我们如何使用它。
AI can be a great technology to make predictions about molecules in the search for new vpn软件免费 antibiotics, but predictions about human beings are fundamentally different than those about things.
Predictions about the weather 免费vpn don't influence the weather.
对天气的预测不会影响天气。
Predictions about people influence people.
对人的预测会影响人。
Social predictions tend to vpn免费 act like magnets.
社会预测往往就像磁铁一样发挥作用。
They bend reality towards themselves.
他们让现实偏向自己。
They 免费vpn affect the reality they purport to predict.
它们会影响他们声称预测的现实。
An algorithmic prediction about future disease can make 免费vpn someone's insurance premiums go up, leading to worse health outcomes from stress alone.
对未来疾病的算法预测可能会导致某人的保险费上涨，仅因压力而导致更糟糕的健康结果。
Predictions sound like descriptions of the world, like facts, but they're not.
预测听起来像是对世界的描述，就像事实，但事实并非如此。
Analyzed closely as assertions, they are vpn免费下载 what philosophers called "speech acts." That is, language that does something other than describe vpn免费下载 the world.
作为断言仔细分析，它们就是哲学家所说的“言语行为”。“也就是说，除了描述世界之外的语言。
When you tell a child to clean up their room, you're not describing the state of the room, you're 免费vpn issuing an order.
当你告诉孩子清理他们的房间时，你不是在描述房间的状况，而是在发布命令。
Similarly, social predictions vpn免费下载 are veiled commands.
同样，社会预测也是隐晦的命令。
They implicitly tell us how to act.
它们含蓄地告诉我们如何行动。
For example, when a tech vpn免费 executive says 免费vpn that in the future vpn软件免费 we will use AI vpn免费 for everything and everywhere, he's trying to get you to act in a way that will fulfill his vision of the future.
You know, the one that happens to line 免费vpn his pockets.
你知道的，就是那个正好中饱私囊的。
And when you believe that prediction, as if it were telling you 免费vpn something about the future, when you give in to the fear of missing vpn软件免费 out, and you go and you buy vpn软件免费 the AI and you contribute to the self-fulfilling prophecy, what you are actually doing is obeying.
Have you noticed vpn软件免费 how often people who vpn免费 make predictions about technology say that the future they are vpn免费下载 describing is inevitable?
您是否注意到对技术做出预测的人经常说他们所描述的未来是不可避免的？
That's a red flag.
这是一个危险信号。
Those predictions are designed to act as vpn免费下载 conversation stoppers.
这些预测的目的是充当对话的障碍。
They're telling you, "Don't question me.
他们告诉你，“不要质疑我。
Just accept what I'm saying as a fact." I'd like for this talk to be a conversation starter.
接受我所说的事实吧。“我希望这次演讲成为对话的开始。
I hope it'll persuade you to ask more questions.
我希望它能说服你提出更多问题。
Predictions invite manipulation.
预测会招致操纵。
Their power to shape the future creates the temptation to tamper with it and benefit from it.
他们塑造未来的能力创造了篡改未来并从中受益的诱惑。
Take prediction markets.
以预测市场为例。
The argument for having them is that they can be a source of knowledge.
拥有它们的理由是它们可以成为知识的来源。
In theory, markets don't lie.
理论上，市场不会说谎。
If people make bets and they stand to lose if they get it wrong, they'll try to get it right.
如果人们下注，如果他们做错了就会失败，他们就会尝试做对。
And by having many people place vpn软件免费 bets, we can harness the wisdom of vpn免费 the crowds.
通过让许多人下注，我们可以利用人群的智慧。
But that assumes a very naive view of prediction as a quest for knowledge.
但这假设了一种非常天真的观点，即预测是对知识的追求。
If you consider prediction as a quest for power, a very different picture emerges.
如果你将预测视为对权力的追求，就会出现一幅截然不同的景象。
If you have enough money, you can use it to influence public perception by heavily betting on something.
如果你有足够的钱，你可以用它通过在某件事上大举押注来影响公众的看法。
Politicians have bet on themselves.
政客们把赌注押在了自己身上。
In February this year, six anonymous accounts earned 1.2 million dollars betting for the attack on Iran.
今年2月，六个匿名账户因对伊朗的袭击而获利120万美元。
Some of those wallets were funded hours before.
其中一些钱包在几个小时前就已到位。
Finally, predictions create and then cover up injustice.
最后，预测会创造并掩盖不公正。
Algorithmic predictions are building this Kafkaesque world in which we can no longer contest decisions because they're not based on clearly defined criteria.
If I reject your loan application because you don't fulfill a particular requirement, that's a verifiable fact.
如果我因为您不满足特定要求而拒绝您的贷款申请，这是一个可以验证的事实。
If I'm wrong, you can challenge me.
如果我错了，你可以挑战我。
But if I reject your loan application on the basis of a prediction, there's no way you 免费vpn can vpn免费下载 contest that.
但如果我根据预测拒绝你的贷款申请，你就无法对此提出异议。
Predictions are never facts.
预测从来都不是事实。
Facts belong to the past.
事实已成为过去。
Predictions are 免费vpn unverifiable, unfalsifiable.
预测是无法证实的，不可证伪的。
Since they are about the future, they cannot be challenged for being false, thereby creating the perfect recipe for hidden injustice.
由于它们是关于未来的，因此不能因为它们的虚假而受到质疑，从而为隐藏的不公正创造了完美的秘诀。
Predictions are often unfair because they're not based on 免费vpn who vpn软件免费 people are, but on who we think they will become.
预测往往是不公平的，因为它们不是基于人们是谁，而是基于我们认为他们会成为谁。
When we predict someone's future as if it was the weather, we're treating them with disrespect.
当我们像预测天气一样预测某人的未来时，我们是在不尊重他们。
Too much as things, and not enough as agents who have a say in that future, who can and should be allowed to defy their odds.
事情太多了，而作为对未来有发言权的代理人，他们可以而且应该被允许反抗他们的胜算，还不够。
We're facing some pretty grim predictions from some of our most prominent prophets.
我们面临着一些最著名的先知的一些相当严峻的预测。
Larry Ellison, the chairman of our predictive software company, appropriately named vpn免费 Oracle, has predicted a modern surveillance state in which citizens will be on their best behavior because we're being watched all the time.
But the illusion of a world without crime is a world filled with a very different vpn免费 kind of crime.
但一个没有犯罪的世界的幻想是一个充满了截然不同犯罪的世界。
Authoritarianism.
威权主义。
Is that the world we want?
这就是我们想要的世界吗？
What can we vpn免费下载 do vpn软件免费 to not sleepwalk into it?
我们能做些什么才能不梦游呢？
Plenty.
很多。
Prophets gain their power from people believing them.
先知从相信他们的人那里获得力量。
If we vpn免费 decide to defy this prediction instead of obeying it, we will choose products that are more respectful of privacy, for starters.
如果我们决定挑战这一预测而不是遵守它，首先我们会选择更尊重隐私的产品。
Hannah Arendt wrote that it's pointless to argue with a murderer about whether their future victim is dead or alive.
汉娜·阿伦特写道，与凶手争论未来的受害者是死是活是毫无意义的。
The only appropriate response is to rescue the person whose death is predicted.
唯一适当的反应是拯救预测死亡的人。
Well, today's prophets are predicting the death of our democracy, and the only appropriate response is to rescue it.
好吧，今天的先知预言我们的民主将会消亡，唯一适当的反应就是拯救它。
In ancient Rome, it was vpn软件免费 illegal to 免费vpn predict the death of the emperor, vpn软件免费 for the very simple reason that they ended up with a murdered emperor on cue.
在古罗马，预测皇帝的死亡是非法的，原因很简单，他们最终发现了一位被谋杀的皇帝。
I'm not suggesting that we do away with prediction.
我并不是说我们要放弃预测。
I'm going to continue vpn免费下载 to use my weather app every single day.
我将继续每天使用我的天气应用程序。
But we vpn免费下载 need a public debate about the acceptable and unacceptable uses of prediction.
但我们需要就预测的可接受和不可接受的用途进行公开辩论。
And we're currently not having it.
而我们目前还没有。
Meanwhile, dozens of algorithms are making decisions about your life right now.
与此同时，数十种算法正在对你的生活做出决定。
It might be that in the vpn免费 case of insurance, we might want to make predictions at a population level, but not for individuals because it creates unfair, self-fulfilling prophecies.
就保险而言，我们可能想在人口水平上做出预测，但不是针对个人，因为它会产生不公平的、自我实现的预言。
Plus, if we're being billed according to individualized predictions, that means that we're basically paying for our own way, and insurance loses its reason for being solidarity and the pooling of risk.
It vpn免费下载 might be that in cases in which fairness matters, we might prefer transparent and contestable criteria to predictive statistical pattern matching.
在公平性很重要的情况下，我们可能更喜欢透明和可预测的标准，而不是预测性统计模式匹配。
Let me start to bring things together.
让我开始把事情整合起来。
Even though self-fulfilling prophecies are nothing new, they are being supercharged by AI in ways that make it more urgent than ever to think more deeply about predictions.
The one idea that I would like for you to take home today is that predictions can be weapons of power.
今天我想让你们带回家的一个想法是，预测可以成为权力武器。
But they only work if we believe them.
但只有当我们相信它们时，它们才有效。
If Oedipus had laughed off the prophecy that he would kill his father and marry his mother, instead of completely freaking out about it --
如果俄狄浦斯对他会杀死父亲并娶母亲的预言一笑置之，而不是对此完全惊慌失措--
He would have never left for Thebes and made the prophecy come true.
他永远不会前往底比斯并让预言成真。
We turn to prophets because we're anxious about uncertainty, but uncertainty is good news.
我们求助于先知，因为我们对不确定性感到焦虑，但不确定性是个好消息。
It means that the future is unwritten, that it's ours to write.
这意味着未来是不成文的，是我们的书写。
And we can face the blank page with creativity, with curiosity, with the excitement of a sense vpn软件免费 of adventure.
我们可以带着创造力、好奇心和冒险的兴奋感面对空白页。
Efforts to predict the future vpn免费 go hand-in-hand vpn免费 with vpn软件免费 efforts to control it.
预测未来的努力与控制未来的努力齐头并进。
So beware of prophets vpn软件免费 and prophecies.
所以要提防先知和预言。
It's only when we acknowledge that we vpn软件免费 don't know what the future holds and act accordingly that we can be sure to vpn软件免费 live in a free society.
只有当我们承认我们不知道未来会发生什么并采取相应行动时，我们才能确保生活在一个自由的社会中。
Don't bow to people's predictions as if they were facts.
不要屈服于人们的预测，就好像它们是事实一样。
Be like Joe Frazier.
就像乔·弗雷泽一样。
When Muhammad vpn软件免费 Ali predicted his own victory in the 1971 heavyweight championship, Frazier took it as a provocation and ended up defeating the previously vpn免费下载 undefeated great Ali in 免费vpn the fight of the century.
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